Recalibrate your BS detector
The bullshit detector. We all have one built in. It rings its alarm bells when the Prince of Nigeria reaches out to us with a lucrative scheme. It buzzes when we're around used car salespeople. It stops us in our tracks so that we may ask: Is this too good to be true? A well-calibrated BS detector makes us skeptical enough not to be fooled, but not so skeptical that we dismiss valuable new ideas. As we experience false positives (calling BS on something legitimate) or false negatives (getting fooled by BS), over time our detectors become increasingly well calibrated.
But in the face of rapid innovation, things can get out of whack really quickly. We see this with every big wave of innovation. It's new, it's exciting, the possibilities are endless. Why shouldn't it work? When electricity went mainstream, we got a lot of questionable devices and people fell for them. Electricity had brought them so many marvels, what's one marvel more?
Then suddenly, we had nanoparticles and nanotech in everything. Quantum physics is a perennial favourite, of course, and now we have generative and agentic AI.
What to do? Especially with AI, I firmly believe that it holds great promise. Yet I also shake my head every day I see another AI influencer tell me that their half-baked prompts will replace entire professions.
How can we stay informed and current on the fantastic possibilities without falling for false promises? Some thoughts:
Have lots of conversations with other practitioners in your field. What have they seen work for them?
Press for details. Exactly how is this particular application of AI supposed to work? Is it a big leap compared to what you have seen working out in the wild?
But also: Stay open. Progress has been rapid. What seemed implausible a year ago is now routine. Simply don't bet the whole farm on any one idea.
As we press on and gain experience (and some battle scars, maybe), our BS detectors will become well-calibrated again. Until the next wave of innovation, anyway.
PS: Another way to navigate the threats and opportunities and tell hype from promise is to work with someone you trust on these topics. Ready when you are. Reply directly to see how we can be your navigation aids through these uncharted waters.
